四大因素可能导致苹果步微软后尘|99银河

Apple Inc., welcome to stock-market purgatory.苹果公司(Apple Inc.)的股票将在市场上遭到磨难。Thats essentially the view Barclays analysts took Wednesday in downgrading the iPhone and iPad maker to equal weight from overweight. The firm predicts the stock will remain rangebound for at least the next year, and could suffer growing pains similar to the ones software giant Microsoft Corp. experienced when it transitioned into a mature, value stock.这基本上就是巴克莱(Barclays)分析师周三将苹果公司的评级从增持上调至中性时持的观点。该行预计，最少在未来一年，苹果的股价都将维持区间波动，而且有可能忍受更加大的压力，类似于微软公司(Microsoft Co.)的股票在向一只成熟期的价值股改变时所遭遇的情况。

Frankly, we just couldnt quite bring ourselves to use smart watches or TVs as reasons to raise numbers--nor were we fully convinced that these products could move the needle like new categories did in the old days, Barclays wrote to clients. As a result, we believe it is time to step aside, given a maturing smart phone market.巴克莱在给客户的报告中写到，坦率说道，我们无法单凭智能手表或智能电视就下调预期，我们也不过于坚信这些产品可以像新产品在过去那样产生决定性起到；因此，鉴于智能手机市场日益成熟期，我们坚信现在是投资者规避的时候。Apple shares recently fell 1.3% to $530.50. The stock is up about 20% over the past 12 months, although it remains well off its record high above $700 hit in September 2012.苹果的股价最近暴跌了1.3%，至530.50美元。该股在过去12个月下跌了大约20%，但仍远高于其在2012年9月刷新的逾700美元的纪录高点。

One of the bullish views on Apple in recent months has been the companys relatively cheap valuation compared to its peers. It trades at about 12 times future earnings, according to FactSet, less than the price-to-earnings ratios of Microsoft, Google Inc. and Facebook Inc.最近几个月，寄予厚望苹果股票的观点之一就是该股的估值与同类股相比较为低廉。FactSet的数据表明，苹果的预期市盈率大约为12倍，高于微软公司、谷歌(Google Inc.)和Facebook Inc.。

Barclays isnt convinced. We believe the valuation argument is becoming less and less helpful, the firm said. Furthermore, we look at a valuation analogy vs. Microsoft from 2000 to about 2010 and see no precedent that large-size tech companies simply start to broadly outperform again after a tough year or two if the law of large numbers is catching up to them and margins have peaked.巴克莱并不尊重这种观点。该行称之为，我们坚信估值偏高的众说纷纭不会更加没意义。另外，我们对2000年至2010前后的苹果与微软公司的估值展开了对比，找到如果合乎大数定律且利润率已超过峰值，没大型科技公司在童年艰苦的一两年后能再次展现出出众的先例。

Heres a chart overlaying Microsofts performance from 1998 through the present compared to Apples performance since 2011.下面这张图将1998年至今的微软公司股价展现出与2011年至今的苹果股价展现出展开了对比。Barclays offered four similarities between Apple now and Microsoft back then:巴克莱列出了苹果公司与微软公司的四点相似之处：Market Cap: Microsofts market cap peaked at about $620 billion in 1999. Apple surpassed that mark in August 2012, but shares peaked the next month. The point is that the most dominant tech leaders of their era dont necessarily just regroup from these types of peaks and re-assume a new all-time high market cap after a year or two, Barclays says. They may get usurped in the ensuing decade or two. These observations are easier to see in hindsight -- but it shows how hard it is to get to this type of size and stay there, much less regroup -- and rise above it again.市值：微软公司的市值在1999年超过了大约6,200亿美元的峰值。苹果的市值在2012年8月多达这一水平，但股价在随后的一个月超过了峰值。

巴克莱指出，关键问题是，一个时代最不具影响力的科技领导者并不一定会在超过这样的峰值后重整旗鼓，并在一两年后再次刷新新的最低市值纪录。该行称之为，这些企业的地位可能会在随后的一二十年被代替；总结企业的发展历程不会更容易看清楚这一点，但这也解释一个企业要超过并维持这种状态有多难，更加不要说道重整旗鼓、再创新高。The Next Big Thing: Apple trades at about 12 times next years earnings, down from its P/E of 15.9 in October 2012. By comparison, Microsoft traded at about 20 times earnings in 2004, but its multiple decreased and has roughly maintained in the mid-teen range since then. Once the market decides that your main product will remain slow for a long time, there does seem to be a visible pattern for multiples to sustain lower levels for a long time even if revenues grow --as was the case with Microsoft, Barclays says.公司发展过程中的下一个重大事件：目前苹果以下一年预期收益计算出来的市盈率为12倍，2012年10月份时的市盈率为15.9倍。与之比起，微软公司2004年的市盈率大约为20倍，但此后市盈率上升并基本保持在13至16倍之间。

巴克莱认为，一旦市场确认一家公司的主要产品不会长年保持较慢发展，那么即便该公司的收益快速增长，其市盈率长年保持在较低水平或许也是一种显著格局，就像微软公司的情况。Valuation: Both companies seemed to share a peak in the valuation that roughly coincided with the high point in gross margins, Barclays says. Microsofts operating margins were in the high 50% range, which marked the high point in the shares. Apples operating margins were over 39% in the second quarter of 2012, and the high in the shares followed about two quarters later.股票估值：巴克莱回应，苹果与微软公司的股票估值高峰或许都有与各自毛利率的高点基本同时经常出现。在微软公司的营业利润率正处于57%-59%的水平时，其股票估值也正处于高点。

苹果的营业利润率在2012年第二季度突破39%，其股票估值的高点经常出现在约两个季度之后。Buybacks: Both Microsoft and Apple bowed to market pressure to issue dividends and start buybacks -- and it really did not lead to a resurgence in share price, Barclays says. We acknowledge that Apple may have put a floor in its stock at $500 given recent buyback acceleration, but the stock may not outperform from the mid $500s simply due to buybacks.股票买入：巴克莱回应，微软公司和苹果都迫使市场压力发放了股息并开始买入股票，但这并没造成其股价回落；从苹果最近减缓买入速度来看，该公司有可能已将股价的“底线”以定在500美元，但正是由于买入行动，苹果的股价有可能会大幅度低于540-560美元。In an interview earlier this month, Apple CEO Tim Cook said the company had bought $14 billion of its own shares in the two weeks following its quarterly results. Apple reported lower iPhone sales than projected and warned that revenue in the current quarter might fall from a year ago.本月早些时候，苹果公司首席执行长库克(Tim Cook)在拒绝接受专访时回应，苹果在公布季度财报后的两周内已买入了140亿美元的股票。

此前，苹果宣告iPhone销售额的上升幅度低于预期，并警告说道当前财季的收益有可能高于上年同期。Apple has bought back more than $40 billion of its shares over the past 12 months, an aggressive push that billionaire investor Carl Icahn has been advocating since he took a position in the company last year.苹果公司在过去12个月买入了多达400亿美元的股票，这是富豪投资人伊坎(Carl Icahn)去年大股东苹果以来仍然在提倡的大力度行动。

Still, unless Apple really has a breakthrough product up its sleeve, Barclays sees the companys future looking awfully similar to Microsoft at the turn of the century.不过，巴克莱指出，除非苹果知道享有突破性产品，否则该公司的前景看上去与微软公司在世纪之交时的情况极为近似于。We see plenty of evidence to suggest that each product cycle or next big thing will get less and less meaningful. The risk to investors, we believe, is that earnings power ex-buybacks could be flattish stemming from multiple pressures on margins, Barclays says.巴克莱回应，我们看见有很多证据指出每一个产品周期或者说“下一个重大事件”的影响力不会更加小。

我们指出，投资者面对的风险是，由于利润率面对多重压力，除了买入之外的收益能力有可能平平。

本文来源：99银河-www.pianolac.com